Published January 29, 2011


8,430 new private homes set to be completed in 2011
URA data also shows nearly half of them will be in the core central region

By UMA SHANKARI

CLOSE to half of the estimated 8,430 new private homes that are slated to be completed in 2011 will be in the upmarket core central region, according to fresh data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday.

The government agency has also bumped up its estimate for the projected supply of private homes due to be completed this year by 25 per cent from three months ago. In October 2010, URA estimated that 6,766 new private homes will be completed in 2011.

Sources told BT that URA has been surveying developers more closely over the last few months in a bid to compile more accurate pipeline supply figures. The agency computes the estimated supply of private housing units in the pipeline through a quarterly survey of developers.

In response to a query from BT, URA said it will continue to work closely with developers to ensure that they submit up-to-date estimations of the expected completion dates of their projects.

'URA's survey of the developers' completion (for 2011) is only starting to increase. The increase from Q3 2010's forecast for 2011 completions to Q4 2010's forecast is a significant 25 per cent. Over the next few quarters, we expect to see further upward revisions,' said Ku Swee Yong, chief executive of real estate firm International Property Advisor.

Looking at the latest completion estimates, analysts once again warned that home-buyers need to brace themselves for a very large supply of private residential units due to be completed each year from 2011 to 2015.

URA currently estimates that 8,116 units will be completed in 2012; 17,111 units in 2013; 17,421 units in 2014; and 13,453 units in 2015.

In fact, 2010's number of newly completed private homes, which stands at around 10,400 units, is already higher than the historical average annual increase in housing supply of around 6,400 private units over the last decade, Mr Ku pointed out. For 2011, a total of 3,874 homes will be added to the housing supply in the core central region, which includes the prime districts 9, 10 and 11, Marina Bay and Sentosa Cove. This will make up 46 per cent of the islandwide housing supply of 8,430 new private homes.

Another 2,265 private homes will be completed in the rest of central region, while in the outside central region, 2,291 units will be completed this year.

URA also said that as at the end of Q4 2010, there was a total supply of 65,699 uncompleted units of private housing from projects in the pipeline. Of these, 32,776 units were still unsold.


Source: www.businesstimes.com.sg

Published January 29, 2011

The charge of the bungalows brigade
URA's sub-index for detached homes soars 37.6%, boosting overall index's gain to 17.6%

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

IN a year fuelled by strong liquidity and economic growth, bungalows were the stars that led the surge in the Singapore property market in 2010. Latest data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority shows that its price index for landed homes climbed 30.8 per cent last year. The sub-index for detached houses, or bungalows, soared 37.6 per cent against a 5.6 per cent rise in 2009.

The index for non-landed private homes rose 14 per cent last year, following a 0.5 per cent gain in 2009. The biggest price hike in 2010 in this segment was for completed non-landed homes in Core Central Region, which climbed 19.5 per cent last year, although prices of uncompleted units in the same region rose at a much slower rate of 10.6 per cent in 2010.

URA's overall price index for private homes swelled 17.6 per cent last year, after posting a 1.8 per cent rise in 2009. It rose 2.7 per cent quarter on quarter in Q4 2010.

Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng observed that the index has appreciated by about 65 per cent over the past five years, translating to an average annual increase of 13 per cent. 'This is a very significant increase considering that we had the biggest financial crisis during this period,' he added. Developers sold a record 16,292 private homes (excluding executive condos) last year, up 10.9 per cent from 2009 and busting the previous high of 14,811 units in 2007.

The other sectors of the property market also saw sharp turnarounds last year, according to the latest URA numbers. For instance, the office price index rose 18.9 per cent in 2010, against a 16.4 per cent drop in 2009. Flatted factory and warehouse prices, too, shot up 23.7 per cent last year, compared with respective declines of 14.2 per cent and 16 per cent in 2009.

Looking ahead, market watchers expect some wind to be taken out of the residential sector following the latest property cooling measures. Investors are channelling their money to the commercial and industrial property segments, which were not the target of the cooling measures announced on Jan 13.

DTZ's SE Asia research head Chua Chor Hoon is predicting a minus 5 per cent to 0 per cent change in URA's overall private home price index this year. Others are more sanguine. Colliers International director of research and advisory Tay Huey Ying forecasts a 5-8 per cent rise with the increase led by mid and high-end properties.

Prices of mass market homes are expected to stay relatively unchanged or ease by up to 2 per cent given the ample new supply in this segment, she said.

As for the landed segment, RealStar Premier Property managing director William Wong, who had earlier predicted an average 10 per cent rise this year in Good Class Bungalow (GCB) prices - the creme de la creme of landed homes on mainland Singapore, now expects prices to hold in 2011.

'Transaction volumes are expected to fall 20-30 per cent over the next 3-6 months. Owners are not prepared to adjust prices downwards while buyers are waiting for prices to go down. This may not happen.'

Another bungalow specialist, KH Tan, managing director of Newsman Realty, said that some sellers have started to withdraw GCBs from the market following the latest cooling measures as they would face longer holding periods on any replacement bungalows they may purchase because of the hikes in seller's stamp duties.

Nevertheless, he predicts an increase of about 10 per cent in GCB prices this year, following last year's appreciation of about 35 per cent, because of the limited stock of GCBs, wealth effect from new ultra high net worth citizens and low interest rates. On Sentosa Cove, where foreigners may buy landed homes, the price gain this year could be higher, about 15 per cent, as 'there are still a lot of rich Chinese foreigners coming in'. Bungalow prices on Sentosa climbed 30 per cent last year on average, he estimated.

On URA's numbers, CB Richard Ellis executive director Li Hiaw Ho observed that while the price index for uncompleted non-landed homes in Outside Central Region (where mass-market condos are located) has surpassed the peak in Q2 2008 by 19.1 per cent, the equivalent index for Core Central Region (which covers the traditional prime districts, financial district and Sentosa Cove) is still 7.1 per cent below its Q1 2008 high.

Meanwhile, the National University of Singapore's Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) flash estimate shows that prices of completed non-landed private homes in Singapore's Central region (postal districts 1-4 and 9-11) appreciated 7.8 per cent last year, while the sub-index for the Non-Central region rose 15 per cent. As a result, the overall SRPI increased 11.9 per cent in 2010. In 2009, the three indices posted respective gains of 27.3 per cent, 19.5 per cent and 22.2 per cent.

URA's data showed that 10,399 private homes were completed last year - close to the 10,488 units in 2009 and 10,122 units in 2008. The overall private residential rental index rose 17.9 per cent last year, a sharp reversal from the 14.6 per cent slide in 2009.

Savills Singapore director for residential leasing Patrick Lai said that overall residential rents may increase a further 5 per cent in 2011. 'We believe that the rental rates for super high-end condominiums and GCBs will remain robust and are likely to increase by 6-10 per cent as more top executives relocate to Singapore.

'For example, we have just leased out a 2,852 square foot unit at The Orchard Residences for $20,000 per month. We also recently handled the leasing of a GCB in the Peirce Villas/Swettenham Road neighbourhood for $40,000-45,000 per month.'


Source: www.businesstimes.com.sg

Non-PRs beat PRs in home-buying spurt
Trend reflects Singapore's place as globalised city and investment centre: analysts

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) As more condos and apartments are being bought by foreigners, analysis shows that the increase in the number of homes being bought by non-permanent residents is outpacing that of their PR compatriots.

In a trend led by Chinese and Indian nationals, the number of non-landed private homes picked up by foreigners who were not PRs jumped 37.1 per cent last year to 3,988 units - compared with the 12.1 per cent rise to 4,317 of such homes bought by PRs, shows an analysis of URA Realis caveats data by Knight Frank.

Market watchers say this reflects Singapore's ongoing transformation into a more globalised city and investment market.

The study shows a 90.4 per cent jump in the number of apartments/con- dos bought by Chinese nationals who were not PRs to 817 last year - against a 31.5 per cent increase in the number of such homes picked up by Chinese citizens who were Singapore PRs last year to 794 units.

It was a similar trend among Indian citizens who acquired non-landed homes in Singapore in 2010. Those who were not PRs posted an almost 50 per cent upsurge in the number of units bought last year to 238 - compared with a 16 per cent rise in the number of such units bought here last year by Indians who were PRs to 788.

'China and India are clearly the economic powerhouses of the world and Singapore has always been seen as an attractive country to invest in, due to transparency of law, absence of capital gains taxes and no entry barrier for apart- ment/condo purchases,' said Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng.

The trend of bigger increases in non-PR foreign buying of non-landed private homes in Singapore is expected to continue, predicts Ong Choon Fah, head of consulting & research (SE Asia) at DTZ. 'As Singapore becomes a more international, vibrant place with more entertainment and other attractions, it is being seen as a more desirable place to live in, and for a second home,' she adds.

Knight Frank's analysis also showed substantial percentage increases in the number of condos/apart- ments here bought last year by UK citizens - both PRs and non-PRs.

The number of units picked up by UK citizens who were not PRs increased around 58 per cent to 185 units, while the number of units bought by Brits who were PRs here rose 48.5 per cent to 153.

Mr Tan suggests that some British expats may be moving to Singapore from Hong Kong, which is becoming too expensive and suffers from air pollution. 'Some Brits may also have decided to move out of the UK to Singapore, where the weather is warmer, the cost of living and taxes lower, and more opportunities abound.'

Combining PR and non-PR foreigners, Chinese citizens overtook Indonesians to emerge as the second biggest group of foreign buyers of apartments and condos in Singapore last year. They lodged a total of 1,611 caveats last year, ahead of the 1,555 caveats by Indonesian buyers. However, Malaysians held on to their pole position, with 1,858 caveats. Indian and UK citizens maintained their fourth and fifth positions with 1,026 and 338 caveats lodged respectively.

Knight Frank also uncovered a divergence in buying preferences for non-landed homes between PRs and non-PRs within some nationalities last year.

For instance, Malaysians who are PRs here preferred suburban locations like Districts 14 (which includes Eunos and Geylang), 18 , 19 and 23 . On the other hand, their compatriots who are not Singapore PRs here tended to zoom in on 'investment-grade' locations - like Districts 4 (which includes Sentosa Cove), 9, 10, 11 (Singapore's traditional prime districts) and 15 (which includes the Meyer Road and Katong vicinity).

'Perhaps Malaysian buyers who are Singapore PRs and working here have smaller budgets or may want to settle down here. So they're looking for a home in the suburbs, while the Malaysians who don't live here are more likely to buy a Singapore residential property for investment,' Mr Tan suggests.

There was also some evidence that Singaporeans had a higher propensity to buy small-format apartments than foreign buyers. In District 15, where many shoebox developments are being built, about 46 per cent of Singaporean buyers last year picked up units priced between $500,000 and $1 million.

In contrast, only about 29 per cent of PR buyers and 21 per cent of non-PR foreign buyers purchased units in this price range

Published January 28, 2011

Source: www.businesstimes.com.sg

10:20 PM Jan 28, 2011

SINGAPORE - Private home prices rose by less than 1 per cent last month from the previous month, according to the latest National University of Singapore (NUS) Singapore Residential Price Index.

The Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) for all properties grew 0.9 per cent month-on-month to 155.5 points. Suburban home prices grew the most, with month-on-month growth coming in at 2.2 per cent to reach 154.8. However, homes prices in the central region fell 0.8 per cent month-on-month.

Still, for the whole year, prices of completed homes increased by 11.9 per cent.

The SRPI is a transactions-based index that tracks the month-on-month price movements of private non-landed residential properties in Singapore. Compiled by the NUS Institute of Real Estate Studies, the index covers only completed non-landed properties in the central region and non-central regions.

Analysts say demand in the secondary residential market remains buoyant. They say a healthy resale market is evidence of strong owner-occupier demand, considered by experts to be a barometer of genuine buying interest. Dr Chua Yang Liang, Head Of Research South-east Asia, Jones Lang Lasalle said: "It reflects the mood of the real market and the real economy, the secondary market, in other words. Less speculative, unlike new launches." Jo-Ann Huang

Source: www.todayonline.com

Published December 29, 2010


High-end condos can't keep pace with mass-market hikes
Prices in Non-Central region top pre-crisis high, Central region 3.7% below peak


By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) The latest flash estimates for November from the National University of Singapore (NUS) show that prices of non-landed private homes in Singapore's Central region (districts 1-4 and 9-11) have appreciated 7.9 per cent in the first 11 months of this year from end-2009.


Over the same period, the Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) sub-index for the Non-Central region rose at a faster clip of 12.9 per cent. As a result, the overall SRPI increased 10.7 per cent year to date.

SRPI, compiled by the NUS Institute of Real Estate Studies, covers only completed properties.

The Central region sub-index for November is still 3.7 per cent shy of its pre-Global Financial Crisis peak in November 2007. On the other hand, the sub-index for the Non-Central region in November has already surpassed its January 2008 pre-crisis peak by 15 per cent. As a result, the overall November 2010 index is about 7.6 per cent above its November 2007 pre-crisis high.

The latest indices from NUS tally with what property agents have been reporting from the ground - that mass-market condo prices have scaled fresh records this year while prices of prime and luxury condos have yet to touch their 2007 records.

DTZ executive director (consulting) Ong Choon Fah said that entry-level suburban condos have enjoyed strong demand this year, riding on upgrader demand amid a buoyant HDB resale market.

'In addition, the trend of developing a higher proportion of smaller units in private residential projects has spread from the prime districts (where rental demand is stronger) to the suburbs - and this has also helped to boost sales of mass-market projects by making the lump sum investment more palatable to buyers.'

Mrs Ong also pointed out that these days, developers of suburban projects are offering some of the innovative features which in the past were available only in prime district projects - such as sky gardens.

Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng said that the increase in high-end condo prices had not been so sparkling this year due to more subdued foreign buying compared with the previous bull run in 2007.

'The foreign buying back then was from a wider spectrum. These days, buyers from the West, Middle East and Russia seem to be out of the equation. Also Western bankers were a significant buying contingent in 2007 but post-crisis, banks are less generous with remuneration.'

Month on month, the overall SRPI dipped 0.2 per cent in November. The sub-index for the Non-Central region too eased 0.3 per cent but the Central region sub-index was flat.

Since the last round of property cooling measures on Aug 30, the Central region sub-index has eased 0.4 per cent while the non-Central index has strengthened 0.9 per cent. As a result, the overall index in November was 0.4 per cent ahead of the August level.

Despite being proven wrong with their earlier forecast of stronger price appreciation for high-end condos compared to mass-market ones for 2010, analysts continue to predict the same trend in 2011, pointing to the already substantial price hikes posted in the mass-market segment. And if the government succeeds in taming HDB resale prices, that will also have an impact on upgrader demand for entry-level condos. Also, any interest rate hike, as well as further property cooling measures, is likely to make a bigger dent on demand in the mass-market segment than on upmarket condos

Source: www.businesstimes.com.sg

Published December 17, 2010

Developers hold back on luxury projects in Q4
This despite higher buying interest for high-end homes in October, November


By UMA SHANKARI

DEVELOPERS continued to hold back on launching new luxury projects in the fourth quarter even as buyer interest in such projects grew slightly in October and November.

No new luxury projects were launched in the fourth quarter, noted CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) in a report yesterday.

This was even though there was increased buying interest for high-end homes - that is, units that sell for more than $2,000 per square foot (psf) - in both October and November.

Around 230 units were sold in this segment in October and another 160 units last month. By comparison, the number of new homes that cost more than $2,000 psf did not cross the 100-mark from June to September 2010.

And for units priced at above $3,000 psf, the number sold doubled to 12 units last month compared to October. Analysts also noted that older launches such as Paterson Suites, The Trizon and The Laurels also saw renewed buying interest in November.

But despite this, most of the launch activity was centred in the mass market segment as developers capitalised on the strong demand from upgraders for cheaper private homes.

'Contrary to expectations that developers would look to unload previously accumulated land for high-end properties to ride on the building up of buying momentum for such properties, developers have only launched 9 per cent more of high-end homes in November,' noted Colliers International's director of research and advisory Tay Huey Ying. 'Instead, developers have surprised many by launching primarily mass-market homes in November.'

The 1,638 units of new mass-market homes released by developers last month was more than triple the 513 units launched in October and accounted for 70 per cent of all new homes released in November.

Buyers responded well, picking up 1,229 mass market units last month - 64 per cent of the 1,909 private homes sold in the month. The strong demand took total sales volume for this year to 15,025 units - even higher than the record 14,811 new private homes sold in 2007.

'Projects located close to MRT stations remain popular among homebuyers,' said Joseph Tan, CBRE's executive director for residential. 'Besides location, other selling points include government plans for future development and new transport network, amenities, tenure and product attributes.'

The trend was true for the first 11 months of the year as well. Data compiled by CBRE shows that out of the 10 best-selling projects, eight were in the outside central region (OCR), which is a proxy for mass market locations.

The three projects that drew the most buyer interest were: UOL Group's 616-unit Waterbank at Dakota (all but one unit sold as of end-November); MCL Land's 608-unit The Estuary (fully sold); and Kheng Leong's The Minton (482 units out of 1,145 sold).

The lack of activity in the high-end segment has also kept prices of such homes dampened despite gains in other categories.

The official URA private residential price index, which already went up 14.4 per cent in the first three quarters of this year, is expected to register another marginal climb in the final quarter, translating to a total rise of 15 per cent to 16 per cent for the whole year.

But most of the growth has been led by mass market homes, analysts noted.

'Overall, prices for prime, mid-tier and mass-market homes have more or less caught up with the peak levels in end-2007. However, prices of new luxury properties were still lagging behind by around 15 per cent,' said Mr Tan.

Equity analysts are getting increasingly wary of residential stocks with large exposures to the mass market segment on concerns that the government could announce more policy measures to cool the market.

'With sales activity largely centred on mass market condos, we believe this will lead to more demand-side and supply-side tightening measures ahead,' said DMG & Partners Research analyst Brandon Lee. 'As such, we are maintaining our preference towards high-end developers, which are less susceptible to policy concerns.'

He reiterated his 'buy' calls on Wing Tai Holdings and SC Global Developments.

DBS Group Research, on the other hand, said in a fresh report that it prefers companies with greater office exposure and laggards such as Keppel Land, UOL Group and Singapore Land, which have the largest office content in their revised net asset values.


Source: www.businesstimes.com.sg

Published November 30, 2010

Non-landed private home prices fall 0.7% in October
Drop was caused by falling prices in the central and non-central locations


By UMA SHANKARI


PRICES of non-landed private homes fell 0.7 per cent in October, according to the monthly index compiled by the National University of Singapore (NUS).

NUS' Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) shows overall home prices fell last month, after having climbed 1.1 per cent per month in both August and September.

The last time the overall index fell was in July, when it dipped 0.1 per cent. NUS has been compiling the index since March this year.

October's drop was caused by falling prices in the 'central' and 'non-central' locations.

Home prices in central locations fell 1.1 per cent last month, after climbing 0.9 per cent in September. The central SRPI last fell in July, by 0.8 per cent.

And in a sign that the slowdown in the property market is now spreading to the mass market segment, the non-central SRPI dipped 0.5 per cent in October - the first time it has fallen since NUS started compiling the index. The non- central SRPI rose 1.3 per cent in September.

Year-to-date, the overall SRPI is up 10.7 per cent. Non-central prices are up 12.8 per cent, while prices in the central region have climbed a smaller 8.1 per cent.

The October flash estimate for the central region is now 3.6 per cent below its pre-financial crisis high in November 2007.

However, for the non- central region, the latest index has surpassed its pre- crisis peak in January 2008 by 14.9 per cent.

As a result, the overall SRPI flash estimate for October is 7.6 per cent above its November 2007 high.

Looking ahead, analysts expect mass market home prices to moderate further, given the impending large supply of development sites being offered for sale by the government.

'Most of the sites in the H1 2011 Government Land Sale programme will inject supply to the mass market segment, and this may rein in mass market home prices,' said Christine Sun, senior manager at Savills Research & Consultancy.

But it will have little impact on the mid-tier and luxury home prices, which could rise further, given the positive economic outlook for next year, she said.

DMG & Partners Research analyst Brandon Lee, for example, expects a 10 per cent fall in mass market home prices due to supply and continued policy risks.

NUS' index, which is compiled by the Institute of Real Estate Studies, was launched to serve as a resource for developing property derivatives in Singapore.

It is computed using the market values of a basket of completed properties.

Uncompleted projects are not included in the basket, as price movements for such projects can be different from those in the rest of the market.

But the impact of new launches on the prices of completed properties in the vicinity is factored in.


Source: www.businesstimes.com.sg

Published November 30, 2010

Non-landed private home prices fall 0.7% in October
Drop was caused by falling prices in the central and non-central locations


By UMA SHANKARI


PRICES of non-landed private homes fell 0.7 per cent in October, according to the monthly index compiled by the National University of Singapore (NUS).


NUS' Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) shows overall home prices fell last month, after having climbed 1.1 per cent per month in both August and September.

The last time the overall index fell was in July, when it dipped 0.1 per cent. NUS has been compiling the index since March this year.

October's drop was caused by falling prices in the 'central' and 'non-central' locations.

Home prices in central locations fell 1.1 per cent last month, after climbing 0.9 per cent in September. The central SRPI last fell in July, by 0.8 per cent.

And in a sign that the slowdown in the property market is now spreading to the mass market segment, the non-central SRPI dipped 0.5 per cent in October - the first time it has fallen since NUS started compiling the index. The non- central SRPI rose 1.3 per cent in September.

Year-to-date, the overall SRPI is up 10.7 per cent. Non-central prices are up 12.8 per cent, while prices in the central region have climbed a smaller 8.1 per cent.

The October flash estimate for the central region is now 3.6 per cent below its pre-financial crisis high in November 2007.

However, for the non- central region, the latest index has surpassed its pre- crisis peak in January 2008 by 14.9 per cent.

As a result, the overall SRPI flash estimate for October is 7.6 per cent above its November 2007 high.

Looking ahead, analysts expect mass market home prices to moderate further, given the impending large supply of development sites being offered for sale by the government.

'Most of the sites in the H1 2011 Government Land Sale programme will inject supply to the mass market segment, and this may rein in mass market home prices,' said Christine Sun, senior manager at Savills Research & Consultancy.

But it will have little impact on the mid-tier and luxury home prices, which could rise further, given the positive economic outlook for next year, she said.

DMG & Partners Research analyst Brandon Lee, for example, expects a 10 per cent fall in mass market home prices due to supply and continued policy risks.

NUS' index, which is compiled by the Institute of Real Estate Studies, was launched to serve as a resource for developing property derivatives in Singapore.

It is computed using the market values of a basket of completed properties.

Uncompleted projects are not included in the basket, as price movements for such projects can be different from those in the rest of the market.

But the impact of new launches on the prices of completed properties in the vicinity is factored in.


Source: businesstimes.com.sg

Published November 30, 2010

New rule may weigh on prices of luxury condos
Developers lose flexibility to time their construction as delays could spell big payouts on their part
By KALPANA RASHIWALA
(SINGAPORE) The prices of luxury condos have continued to rise this year but a new rule may soon tie the hands of the developers.


Till now, many have picked their time to launch developments when sentiments are good and decent prices can be charged. But under the rule changes which are expected to kick in early next year, they may lose this luxury.

If they bust the project completion period on sites bought from private sector sources, they stand to lose not just the 10 per cent bankers' guarantee for land cost, but could also end up making huge payments for time extension.

All this could force them to launch earlier than they might like and affect prices, market watchers said.

The median price of new luxury condo transactions stood at $3,265 per square foot in Q3 this year, an increase of 18.7 per cent year to date, according to CB Richard Ellis' analysis. However, the figure is still about 13 per cent shy of the peak achieved in Q4 2007.

A question mark now hangs over whether the previous peak median price of $3,750 psf can be scaled next year.

CBRE's compilation shows about 1,500-odd luxury non-landed homes could be generated on projects that have received planning approval from Urban Redevelopment Authority and which have yet to be launched. These include five projects in the Ardmore Park area alone, the Westwood site at Orchard Boulevard, the former Parisian plot at Angullia Park and Ho Bee's and IOI's 302-unit condo on the Pinnacle Collection plot at Sentosa Cove.

CBRE executive director (residential) Joseph Tan says: 'Developers' strategy in the first instance, would be to hold off launching these projects as long as they can until sentiment improves further in this segment.'

Agreeing, Wheelock Properties (Singapore) CEO David Lawrence says: 'Traditionally, developers know that for really high-end projects on very good sites like Ardmore Park, if you just keep them in your pockets, eventually prices will come up and they make money. But developers can't do that anymore.'

The catch is the amendment to the Residential Property Act that will apply to private residential projects undertaken by foreign housing developers with Qualifying Certificates (QCs), a category which effectively covers all listed developers.

Such projects, built on residential sites bought from private-sector sources, will in future have to be completed within the stipulated project completion period (PCP). Otherwise, the developers may not only lose their bankers' guarantees as is the case currently but also have to pay the state for any time extension.

This is similar to the scheme for sites sold through the Government Land Sales Programme. Developers have to pay 8 per cent of the tendered land price for the first year of PCP extension. They must pay 16 per cent for the second year's extension and 24 per cent per annum for the third and subsequent years.

CBRE's Mr Tan estimates that since it takes 30-36 months to complete a typical high-rise condo, and assuming developers need to attain Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) by 2014-2015, construction would have to begin around 2011-2012.

That still leaves some room to avoid a bunching of project launches given that on average, developers have been able to sell an average of about 650 non-landed homes per year at above $2,000 psf over the past five years.

One way that deep-pocketed developers may get out of the bind is to build their projects first - and meet PCP deadlines - but launch them for sale only when the sentiment is good.

For this reason, most property consultants don't expect developers to drop prices. 'But there's a good chance they may have to reduce their profit expectations if they wish to clear the units,' says Knight Frank managing director (residential services) Peter Ow. While he's betting there's a fair chance that the market could revisit the 2007-high in luxury condo prices next year, others are less sanguine.

As Mr Lawrence puts it: 'Prime property in the long term will still do very well in Singapore, but it's a difficult period at the moment. There's plenty of demand. I think prices won't come down much, but they won't go up to the level that developers are expecting; perhaps (they'll have to) make much finer profit margins.'

There have been 'one-off' cases of high-priced transactions lately - such as a high-floor apartment at Boulevard Vue that Far East Organization sold last month for $4,800 psf reportedly to a foreign buyer. 'However, we'll need to see more foreign money flowing into Singapore. Right now, Singapore luxury condo prices are still below those in other major cities including London, where prime apartments are going for about £2,500-4,000 psf' (S$5,205-8,329) says CBRE's Mr Tan.

DTZ South-east Asia research head Chua Chor Hoon said: 'With the major economies still weak, foreign buyers have not come back to Singapore in a big way yet.'

Knight Frank's Mr Ow is hopeful that 'property curbs in China and Hong Kong could divert some moneys to Singapore and boost our high-end market'.

Source: Businesstimes.com.sg

Published October 29, 2010


Jittery developers go low-rise on confidence
34% expect prices of new launches to fall; some fear more cooling measures

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) The worst- kept secret in the property market is out in the open. Not only are developers less upbeat about the future but a third of them actually expect prices of new homes to decline. And market performance for the suburban residential sector may be the worst hit.

This dose of pessimism was reflected in the latest readings of Real Estate Sentiment Index (RESI) put out by the developers body and NUS.

In the wake of the Aug 30 cooling measures, some 34 per cent of developers polled for Q3 expect prices for new residential launches to decline, albeit by less than 10 per cent, over the next six months. None of the developers surveyed in Q1 and Q2 had predicted price drops.

Just 44 per cent expect more new residential units to be launched over the next half year, down from 68 per cent in the previous quarter.

The sentiment indices slipped below the psychologically significant mark of 5 in Q3, indicating respondents were less upbeat in the quarter and expect more uncertain market conditions over the next six months.

The consensus as indicated by net balances is generally weaker.

Polled on how the suburban residential sector would perform, the net balance in Q3 was -43 per cent. This means that most expect the sector to perform worse over the next six months. In Q2, this net balance was +27 per cent, hinting at better future performance.

'The strong historical price growth in the sector is not likely to be sustained moving forward. Downward adjustment to the price growth, if it occurs in the next few months, will ease some pressure on the affordability level of mass-market residential properties in suburban areas,' said Associate Professor Sing Tien Foo of NUS.

The net balance for the future market performance of the prime residential sector, while still in positive territory, has also been declining significantly, from +54 per cent in Q1 to +32 per cent in Q2 and +3 per cent in Q3.

About 70 per cent of the developer respondents in the latest survey were concerned that the government could intervene to dampen the property market further.

They also cited other factors that could hurt sentiment over the next six months. The concerns included a slowdown in the global economy (cited by 60 per cent), an increase in the supply of development land (53 per cent), too many new property launches (49 per cent), rising interest rates (47 per cent) and tightening financing/liquidity in the debt market (40 per cent).

Eighty-four per cent of all survey respondents consider it likely and very likely that there will be a further increase in the supply of development land over the next six months. An even higher proportion, 90 per cent, of respondents expect the government to further boost the supply of Build-to-Order and Design, Build and Sell Scheme public housing flats as well as executive condo (EC) units.

Recent government steps to cool the market are expected to have most impact on the HDB resale and mass private housing market segments. About 76 and 64 per cent respectively of survey respondents rated their impact on these two market segments over the next six months as significant. Conversely, the measures are expected to have the least impact on the high-end/luxury segment with 64 per cent predicting minimal impact. For the mid-end private housing segment, 79 per cent foresee only moderate impact.

Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore and NUS' Department of Real Estate polled slightly over 70 respondents for their latest Q3 survey, similar to the size for the Q1 and Q2 surveys.

The Current Sentiment Index, where respondents are asked to rate overall Singapore real estate market conditions now compared with six months ago, fell from 5.8 in Q2 to 4.8 in Q3.

The Future Sentiment Index, where respondents rate overall property market conditions over the next six months, also slipped from 5.9 in Q2 to 4.8 in Q3. As a result, the Composite Sentiment Index (the average of the two indices), also declined to 4.8. The index ranges from 0 to 10 with a score below 5 indicating deteriorating market conditions.

Redas CEO Steven Choo said: 'The RESI was able to track closely the immediate impact the cooling measures has on sentiments in the property sector.'

Agreeing, Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng said: 'The findings are not surprising. Just look at the amount of land government has been releasing and the supply of new HDB flats and ECs they're planning, plus the demand-side measures. People have put on their thinking caps to figure out how they'll be affected, whether they are HDB upgraders, buying a second/investment property, or even downgrading.

'The latest survey results are a clear signal to government that the measures are having an impact,' he added.

Separately, the NUS' Institute of Real Estate Studies yesterday released its monthly Singapore Residential Price Index tracking prices of completed non-landed private homes. The overall index rose one per cent month on month in September, slightly slower than the 1.1 per cent increase in August.

NUS' sub-index for Central region, which covers a basket of properties in districts 1-4 and 9-11, increased 0.6 per cent in September, the same pace as in August. The sub-index for Non-Central region appreciated 1.4 per cent in September, slightly slower than the 1.6 per cent gain posted in August.

Source: http://www.businesstimes.com.sg

NUS flash estimate offers a snapshot before government's cooling measures

Published September 29, 2010
By KALPANA RASHIWALA


(SINGAPORE) The latest flash estimates from National University of Singapore (NUS) show that prices of non-landed private homes remained flattish in August compared with July. This period would not have shown up the impact of the government cooling measures, which were announced on Aug 30.

The Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI), compiled by the NUS Institute of Real Estate Studies, covers only completed properties.

NUS's overall price index for non-landed homes for August rose 0.8 per cent month on month, compared with a month-on-month drop of 0.1 per cent for July. The June index was up 0.6 per cent over May. In May, the index appreciated 2.4 per cent.

Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng said the numbers show that the market for resale apartments/condos had stabilised since June, even before the Government announced its latest set of cooling measures.

'Much of the sales in the primary market (developer sales) in the past few months have been driven by shoebox units. So the volume of developer sales was pretty strong in July and August but if you look at the absolute dollar quantum of units sold, it's not increasing,' he explained.

NUS' sub-index for Central region, which covers a basket of properties in districts 1-4 and 9-11, was unchanged in August, following a 0.8 per cent month-on-month drop in July. The sub-index for Non-Central region rose 1.5 per cent in August from the preceding month, after a 0.5 per cent increase in July.

Since the end of last year, all three indices have appreciated, to the tune of 10 per cent for the overall index, 7.6 per cent for the Central region and 11.8 per cent for the Non-Central region.

The August flash estimate for Central region is still 4 per cent below the pre-crisis high in November 2007. However, for the Non-Central region, the latest index has surpassed its respective pre-crisis peak in January 2008 by 13.9 per cent. As a result, the overall SRPI flash estimate for August is 6.9 per cent above its Nov 2007 high.

The SPRI is compiled based on a basket of properties for the base period Dec 2009 comprising 74,359 units in 364 projects within the 26 postal districts completed between Oct 1998 and Sept 2009. The basket is to be reviewed every two years.

Market watchers are awaiting the government's release of flash estimates for the Q3 2010 prices indices for private homes and HDB resale flats on Friday for an idea of the impact of the recent cooling measures.

Meanwhile, the soft launch of Vacanza@East yesterday is said to have drawn an impressive turnout at its showflat at Lengkong Tujoh in the Kembangan area. Initially two blocks or 141 units were released but sources say that eventually, the entire project, which has 473 units in seven blocks, was made available. The average price is said to be about $1,090 psf for the 12-storey freehold condo, which faces the Pan Island Expressway.

Its developer, Hoi Hup Sunway Property, declined to provide a sales update.

Source: http://www.businesstimes.com.sg